World estimates of the International Grain Council have promised a grain production of 1.9 bln tons in the grain year 2013/14 vs. 1.78 bln tons last year.
Soybean production is forecast to rise from 239 to 265 mln tons. Consumption of grains will increase by 60 mln, end stocks by 30 mln tons.
According to IGC, wheat production will be 680 mln tons vs. 655 in 2012, corn 939 mln tons against the dramatic low of 851 mln tons last year, barley 57.7 vs. 56.0 mln tons.
The supply situation will relax after a threatening tightness of the past few crop years, and it is assumed that prices will return to “normal” levels and stay there for an extended period to come. It will be welcome by the political scene, which held tight grain stocks and the “subsequent price speculation” responsible for hunger in the poor parts of the world, industry analysts said.
Whether this forecast comes true or not, will depend on the weather from now till harvest. We are living in a time of a climate change, and past springs and summers have presented a number of bad surprises to the world.
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