The IGC forecasts a world barley production of 138 mln tons vs. 130 mln last year. It has, of course, not yet taken into account the possible problems in North America nor a threatening dryness in Eastern Europe and Australia, industry analysts said in a note earlier in May.
Markets show a great discount for new crop barley, also based on the reappearing availabilities from the Black Sea and Argentina.
The IGC forecasts total supplies for the season of 161 mln tons, total use of 136 and closing stocks of 25 mln tons. International trade is forecast to reach 18 mln tons. Crops in Iran and North Africa are forecast larger than last year, but it is expected that Saudi Arabia will import larger quantities, and China will need more malting barley supplies from abroad.
The situation of malting barley looks a bit precarious at present. All exporter countries, the EU, USA, Canada, Argentina and Australia could possibly turn out smaller crops this year. Already at the beginning of May the malting barley premium in the EU is around EUR 40,- per ton, up from negligible premiums for the crop 2012 barley. Tight supplies in past years have shown, however, that there is always enough malting barley in the world, the question is only in what quality and at what price.
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